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Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method 下载免费PDF全文
Lei Ye Jianzhong Zhou Hoshin V. Gupta Hairong Zhang Xiaofan Zeng Lu Chen 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2703-2716
Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Mixing of event and pre‐event water in a shallow Entisol in sloping farmland based on isotopic and hydrometric measurements,SW China 下载免费PDF全文
Water percolation and flow processes in subsurface geologic media play an important role in determining the water source for plants and the transport of contaminants or nutrients, which is essential for water resource management and the development of measures for pollution mitigation. During June 2013, the dynamics of the rainwater, soil water, subsurface flows and groundwater in a shallow Entisol on sloping farmland were monitored using a hydrometric and isotopic approach. The results showed that effective mixing of rainwater and soil water occurred in hours. The rebound phenomenon of δD profiles in soils showed that most isotope‐depleted rainwater largely bypassed the soil matrix when the water saturation in the soil was high. Preferential‐flow, which was the dominant water movement pattern in the vadose zone, occurred through the whole soil profile, and infrequent piston‐flow was mainly found at 20–40 cm in depth. The interflow in the soil layer, composed of 75.2% rainwater, was only generated when the soil profile had been saturated. Underflow in the fractured mudrock was the dominant flow type in this hillslope, and outflow was dominated by base flow (groundwater flow) with a mean contribution of 76.7%. The generation mechanism of underflow was groundwater ridging, which was superimposed upon preferential‐flow composed mainly of rainwater. The quick mixing process of rainwater and soil water and the rapid movement of the mixture through preferential channels in the study soil, which shows a typical bimodal pore size distribution, can explain the prompt release of pre‐event water in subsurface flow. Water sources of subsurface flows at peak discharge could be affected by the antecedent soil water content, rain characteristics and antecedent groundwater levels. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Inverse modelling using PS‐InSAR data for improved land subsidence simulation in Las Vegas Valley,Nevada 下载免费PDF全文
Las Vegas Valley has had a long history of groundwater development and subsequent surface deformation. InSAR interferograms have revealed detailed and complex spatial patterns of subsidence in the Las Vegas Valley area that do not coincide with major pumping regions. This research represents the first effort to use high spatial and temporal resolution subsidence observations from InSAR and hydraulic head data to inversely calibrate transmissivities (T), elastic and inelastic skeletal storage coefficients (Ske and Skv) of the developed‐zone aquifer and conductance (CR) of the basin‐fill faults for the entire Las Vegas basin. The results indicate that the subsidence observations from InSAR are extremely beneficial for accurately quantifying hydraulic parameters, and the model calibration results are far more accurate than when using only groundwater levels as observations, and just a limited number of subsidence observations. The discrepancy between distributions of pumping and greatest levels of subsidence is found to be attributed to spatial variations in clay thickness. The Eglington fault separates thicker interbeds to the northwest from thinner interbeds to the southeast and the fault may act as a groundwater‐flow barrier and/or subsidence boundary, although the influence of the groundwater barrier to this area is found to be insignificant. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT A typical diachronous breakup developed in the South China Sea (SCS); the breakup has been unequivocally identified, and gradually decreases in age from NE to SW. To illustrate the influence of a diachronous breakup on hydrocarbon accumulation, we used seismic profiles from CNOOC, and analysed crustal extension characteristics, sedimentary style and source rock accumulation. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Because of the diachronous breakup in the SCS, various tectonic units developed in different positions on the northern continental margin with different degrees of extension. The Pearl River Mouth Basin (PRMB) is closer to the central sea basin of the SCS and has been affected by regional tension stress for a longer time. Tectonic units of proximal domain, necking zone, and distal margin types developed, and the crust structure thinned from the land towards the sea. The Qiongdongnan Basin (QB) is closer to the Southwest Sub-basin. There are symmetrical proximal domains on the southern and northern sides of the QB, with a necking zone in the central part. It presents as an abandoned passive continental margin. (2) The PRMB exhibited rifted cells first, followed by canyon type extensional faulting and horizontal axial transportation, and then by a longitudinal shelf-slope sedimentary style. But the QB has only rifted cells and canyon type faulting stages, no longitudinal shelf-slope sedimentary stage. The major source rocks in the northern SCS become younger from east to west, and the sedimentary facies change from lacustrine facies to marine-continental transitional facies. (3) The diachronous breakup process ultimately affecting oil and gas migration and accumulation process. The PRMB is dominated by deep-water shelf break accumulation with deep-water fan reservoir bodies. The QB is dominated by canyon type accumulation with channels. 相似文献